feat(pvforecast): keep outages out of the local provider's calibration

A battery or inverter failure limits PV to local demand for days. The
calibration read that as the plant's true output and learned it as a permanent
model loss, so one outage degraded the forecast long after the hardware was
fixed.

Calibration now estimates the healthy plant ratio over
`calibration_reference_days`, excludes days below `calibration_outage_threshold`
of it, and falls back to the most recent `calibration_min_healthy_days` when the
normal window is contaminated. `calibration_outage_filter_enabled` turns this
off for plants where measured curtailment, not available potential, is the
prediction target.

The fit also uses native 15-minute meter readings when every configured PV meter
supplies them - never interpolating hourly counters into an invented
quarter-hour profile - interpolates azimuth factors smoothly between bin centres
instead of stepping the EMS input curve, and normalizes the shape per forecast
day so it redistributes energy without changing that day's kWh correction. The
default azimuth bin widens from 15 to 45 degrees, which is what a typical
window actually supports.

Fixes the calibration window itself: it was derived from the measurement store
as a whole rather than from the configured PV production meters. A load meter
reaching further than the PV meter placed the window where no PV reading exists,
so calibration silently fell back to hourly fitting or skipped itself.

Also fixes `Measurement.load()`, which discarded every stored record. It
validated the file into a "temporary" Measurement, but Measurement is a
singleton, so that instance was the live one and the parsed records were
dropped.

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -118,6 +118,15 @@ The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/).
 - Add `scripts/pvforecast_backtest.py`, which scores PV forecast configuration variants against
   the stored meter readings straight away instead of waiting for new forecasts to come true, and
   `Measurement.pv_production_total_kwh()` alongside the existing load total.
+- The local PV provider's calibration now excludes probable outage and curtailment days instead of
+  learning them as permanent model losses: `calibration_outage_filter_enabled` (default on),
+  `calibration_outage_threshold`, `calibration_reference_days` and `calibration_min_healthy_days`
+  estimate the healthy plant ratio and fall back to the most recent healthy days. Calibration also
+  uses native 15-minute meter readings when every configured PV meter supplies them, interpolates
+  azimuth factors smoothly between bin centres instead of stepping, and normalizes the fitted
+  shape per forecast day so it redistributes energy without changing that day's kWh correction.
+  The default `calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees` moves from 15 to 45, which is what a typical
+  calibration window actually supports.
 - Separate the control horizon from the battery lookahead. `optimization.horizon_hours` remains
   the only span that receives control commands; the new `optimization.tail_horizon_hours`
   (default 48 h) is a forecast lookahead that never produces a command. In `AUTO` terminal-value
@@ -219,6 +228,14 @@ The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/).
   provider could 404 the whole load prediction. It now defaults to a cache-aware update and
   accepts an optional `force_update` flag in the request body for callers that still want
   to force.
+- The local PV provider derived its calibration window from the measurement store as a whole
+  instead of from the configured PV production meters. A load meter reaching further than the PV
+  meter placed the window where no PV reading exists, so calibration silently fell back to hourly
+  fitting or skipped itself entirely. The window now follows the PV meters.
+- `Measurement.load()` silently discarded every stored record. It validated the file into a
+  temporary `Measurement`, but `Measurement` is a singleton, so the "temporary" instance was the
+  already initialized one and the parsed records were dropped. The records are now validated
+  individually and inserted directly.
 - A rejected configuration update no longer damages the running configuration.
   `merge_settings_from_dict` validated the merged candidate only while reinitializing the
   singleton, so an invalid update could leave EOS half-updated. The candidate is validated first.

docs/_generated/configpvforecast.md

@@ -206,12 +206,16 @@
 | ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
 | albedo | `float` | `rw` | `0.25` | Ground albedo used for planes that do not set their own. |
 | apply_iam | `bool` | `rw` | `True` | Apply the ASHRAE incidence-angle modifier to the beam component. |
-| calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees | `int` | `rw` | `15` | Width of the solar-azimuth bins for the correction. 0 fits a single global factor only. |
+| calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees | `int` | `rw` | `45` | Width of the solar-azimuth bins for the correction. 0 fits a single global factor only. |
 | calibration_days | `int` | `rw` | `30` | Length of the measurement window used to fit the correction. |
 | calibration_enabled | `bool` | `rw` | `False` | Correct systematic model error against measured PV production. Requires `measurement.pv_production_emr_keys` to be configured and fed. Fits a global scale factor plus per-solar-azimuth factors, which is what catches near-field shading the horizon profile misses. |
 | calibration_max_factor | `float` | `rw` | `1.5` | Upper clamp on any fitted correction factor. |
 | calibration_min_factor | `float` | `rw` | `0.5` | Lower clamp on any fitted correction factor. |
+| calibration_min_healthy_days | `int` | `rw` | `3` | Minimum number of healthy days used for a fit. Older healthy days from the reference window are added when the recent window contains fewer. |
+| calibration_outage_filter_enabled | `bool` | `rw` | `True` | Exclude days whose measured production is far below the recent healthy plant level. This prevents inverter, battery and curtailment events from being learned as permanent PV model losses. |
+| calibration_outage_threshold | `float` | `rw` | `0.55` | A day is treated as unavailable when its measured/modelled energy ratio is below this fraction of the robust healthy reference ratio. |
 | calibration_prior_kwh | `float` | `rw` | `5.0` | Shrinkage strength: a bin needs this much modelled energy before its own factor outweighs the global one. Higher is more conservative. |
+| calibration_reference_days | `int` | `rw` | `30` | Lookback used to distinguish healthy production from outages or curtailment. If the calibration window contains too few healthy days, the most recent healthy days from this reference window are used. |
 | forecast_days | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `None` | Forecast horizon in days (1-16). Leave empty to derive it from `prediction.hours`, which is what keeps the optimizer's tail horizon fed. |
 | inverter_efficiency | `float` | `rw` | `0.96` | Nominal inverter efficiency (PVWatts eta_inv_nom). |
 | past_days | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `None` | Days of past data to request (0-92). Leave empty to derive it from `prediction.historic_hours`. |
@@ -247,7 +251,11 @@
                    "shift_to_interval_start": true,
                    "calibration_enabled": true,
                    "calibration_days": 30,
-                   "calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees": 15,
+                   "calibration_reference_days": 30,
+                   "calibration_outage_filter_enabled": true,
+                   "calibration_outage_threshold": 0.55,
+                   "calibration_min_healthy_days": 3,
+                   "calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees": 45,
                    "calibration_prior_kwh": 5.0,
                    "calibration_min_factor": 0.5,
                    "calibration_max_factor": 1.5
@@ -432,9 +440,9 @@
 
 | Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
 | ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
+| PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastakkudoktorlocal.PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal settings |
 | PVForecastForecastSolar | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastforecastsolar.PVForecastForecastSolarCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastForecastSolar settings |
 | PVForecastImport | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastimport.PVForecastImportCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastImport settings |
-| PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastlocal.PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal settings |
 | PVForecastPVNode | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastpvnode.PVForecastPVNodeCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastPVNode settings |
 | PVForecastSolcast | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastsolcast.PVForecastSolcastCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastSolcast settings |
 | PVForecastVrm | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastvrm.PVForecastVrmCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastVrm settings |

docs/akkudoktoreos/prediction.md

@@ -822,6 +822,25 @@ factor is clamped to `[calibration_min_factor, calibration_max_factor]` so a bro
 either. The fitted factors and the resulting change in mean absolute error are logged at INFO
 level on every update.
 
+By default, calibration also rejects probable outage or curtailment days. It estimates the
+healthy plant ratio from `calibration_reference_days`, excludes days below
+`calibration_outage_threshold` of that reference, and falls back to the most recent
+`calibration_min_healthy_days` when the normal calibration window contains an outage. This keeps
+a battery or inverter failure that limits PV to local demand from becoming a permanent forecast
+loss. Set `calibration_outage_filter_enabled` to false only when measured curtailed production,
+rather than available PV potential, is the intended prediction target.
+
+The measurement cadence controls the detail that can be learned. Hourly cumulative meter
+readings calibrate hourly energy while the native Open-Meteo/pvlib chain continues to supply the
+15-minute shape. If every configured PV meter supplies genuine 15-minute readings, calibration
+automatically uses those native slots as well. It never interpolates hourly counters into an
+invented quarter-hour profile. Azimuth factors are interpolated smoothly between bin centres so
+they do not introduce steps into the EMS input curve. The shape fit uses all healthy days in the
+reference window, while the global factor still follows the shorter recent window. Finally, the
+shape is normalized per forecast day: it redistributes the calibrated energy across the day's
+15-minute slots without changing that day's global kWh correction (unless the physical inverter
+limit clips a peak).
+
 Calibration requires `measurement.pv_production_emr_keys` to be configured and fed with
 cumulative PV production meter readings in kWh:
 

scripts/pvforecast_backtest.py

@@ -46,8 +46,11 @@ ENSEMBLE = ["icon_seamless", "ecmwf_ifs025", "gfs_seamless"]
 # Variants scored against the meter. Each entry is a label plus the settings overrides
 # applied on top of the configured provider settings.
 VARIANTS: list[tuple[str, dict[str, Any]]] = [
-    ("best_match", {"weather_models": ["best_match"]}),
+    (
-    ("ensemble", {"weather_models": ENSEMBLE}),
+        "best_match",
+        {"weather_models": ["best_match"], "calibration_enabled": False},
+    ),
+    ("ensemble", {"weather_models": ENSEMBLE, "calibration_enabled": False}),
     ("ensemble + calibration", {"weather_models": ENSEMBLE, "calibration_enabled": True}),
     (
         "ensemble + calibration (global only)",
@@ -57,8 +60,18 @@ VARIANTS: list[tuple[str, dict[str, Any]]] = [
             "calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees": 0,
         },
     ),
-    ("ensemble, isotropic sky", {"weather_models": ENSEMBLE, "transposition_model": "isotropic"}),
+    (
-    ("ensemble, no IAM", {"weather_models": ENSEMBLE, "apply_iam": False}),
+        "ensemble, isotropic sky",
+        {
+            "weather_models": ENSEMBLE,
+            "transposition_model": "isotropic",
+            "calibration_enabled": False,
+        },
+    ),
+    (
+        "ensemble, no IAM",
+        {"weather_models": ENSEMBLE, "apply_iam": False, "calibration_enabled": False},
+    ),
 ]
 
 
@@ -94,6 +107,8 @@ def main(days: int, tilt: Optional[float], azimuth: Optional[float]) -> int:
     singletons_init()
     config = get_config()
     measurement = get_measurement()
+    if measurement.max_datetime is None:
+        measurement.load()
 
     if not config.measurement.pv_production_emr_keys:
         print(
@@ -175,6 +190,11 @@ def main(days: int, tilt: Optional[float], azimuth: Optional[float]) -> int:
         "on, so their advantage here is optimistic. Re-run with a longer --days to see\n"
         "how much of it survives."
     )
+    print(
+        "Outage or curtailment periods are excluded from calibration but remain in these\n"
+        "scores, because the script cannot prove the plant's availability without an\n"
+        "explicit availability measurement."
+    )
 
     best_label, best, hours = min(rows, key=lambda row: row[1]["mae"])
     print(

src/akkudoktoreos/measurement/measurement.py

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ data records for measurements.
 The measurements can be added programmatically or imported from a file or JSON string.
 """
 
+import json
 from pathlib import Path
 from typing import Any, Optional
 
@@ -359,14 +360,12 @@ class Measurement(SingletonMixin, DataImportMixin, DataSequence):
             if not measurement_file_path.exists():
                 return False
             try:
-                # Validate into a temporary instance
+                # Do not validate the complete Measurement model here. Measurement is a
-                loaded = self.__class__.model_validate_json(
+                # singleton, so constructing a temporary instance returns the already
-                    measurement_file_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+                # initialized singleton and silently discards the serialized records.
-                )
+                payload = json.loads(measurement_file_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
-
+                for record_data in payload.get("records", []):
-                # Explicitly add data records to the existing singleton
+                    self.insert_by_datetime(MeasurementDataRecord.model_validate(record_data))
-                for record in loaded.records:
-                    self.insert_by_datetime(record)
             except Exception as e:
                 logger.exception("Cannot load measurements")
         return True

src/akkudoktoreos/prediction/pvforecastakkudoktorlocal.py

@@ -203,8 +203,56 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings(SettingsBaseModel):
             "examples": [30, 14],
         },
     )
+    calibration_reference_days: int = Field(
+        default=30,
+        ge=3,
+        le=MAX_PAST_DAYS,
+        json_schema_extra={
+            "description": (
+                "Lookback used to distinguish healthy production from outages or "
+                "curtailment. If the calibration window contains too few healthy days, "
+                "the most recent healthy days from this reference window are used."
+            ),
+            "examples": [30, 14],
+        },
+    )
+    calibration_outage_filter_enabled: bool = Field(
+        default=True,
+        json_schema_extra={
+            "description": (
+                "Exclude days whose measured production is far below the recent healthy "
+                "plant level. This prevents inverter, battery and curtailment events from "
+                "being learned as permanent PV model losses."
+            ),
+            "examples": [True],
+        },
+    )
+    calibration_outage_threshold: float = Field(
+        default=0.55,
+        gt=0.0,
+        lt=1.0,
+        json_schema_extra={
+            "description": (
+                "A day is treated as unavailable when its measured/modelled energy ratio "
+                "is below this fraction of the robust healthy reference ratio."
+            ),
+            "examples": [0.55, 0.5],
+        },
+    )
+    calibration_min_healthy_days: int = Field(
+        default=3,
+        ge=1,
+        le=31,
+        json_schema_extra={
+            "description": (
+                "Minimum number of healthy days used for a fit. Older healthy days from "
+                "the reference window are added when the recent window contains fewer."
+            ),
+            "examples": [3],
+        },
+    )
     calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees: int = Field(
-        default=15,
+        default=45,
         ge=0,
         le=180,
         json_schema_extra={
@@ -212,7 +260,7 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings(SettingsBaseModel):
                 "Width of the solar-azimuth bins for the correction. 0 fits a single "
                 "global factor only."
             ),
-            "examples": [15, 30, 0],
+            "examples": [45, 30, 15, 0],
         },
     )
     calibration_prior_kwh: float = Field(
@@ -295,7 +343,12 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal(PVForecastProvider):
         if settings.calibration_enabled:
             # The fit compares modelled against measured power over the same past
             # intervals, so the weather for that window has to come back with the request.
-            past_days = max(past_days, settings.calibration_days)
+            calibration_lookback = settings.calibration_days
+            if settings.calibration_outage_filter_enabled:
+                calibration_lookback = max(
+                    calibration_lookback, settings.calibration_reference_days
+                )
+            past_days = max(past_days, calibration_lookback)
 
         return forecast_days, min(MAX_PAST_DAYS, past_days)
 
@@ -305,7 +358,9 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal(PVForecastProvider):
         latitude = self.config.general.latitude
         longitude = self.config.general.longitude
         if latitude is None or longitude is None:
-            raise ValueError("PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal needs general.latitude and general.longitude")
+            raise ValueError(
+                "PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal needs general.latitude and general.longitude"
+            )
 
         settings = self._settings
         block = "minutely_15" if settings.resolution_minutes == 15 else "hourly"
@@ -602,8 +657,14 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal(PVForecastProvider):
             # The fit needs the raw model to compare against, which is exactly `frame`.
             calibration = self._fit_calibration(frame)
             if calibration is not None:
-                _, factors = calibration
+                global_factor, factors = calibration
-                frame = self._apply_calibration(frame, factors, self._installed_ac_capacity_w())
+                frame = self._apply_calibration(
+                    frame,
+                    factors,
+                    self._installed_ac_capacity_w(),
+                    global_factor=global_factor,
+                    timezone=self.config.general.timezone,
+                )
         return frame
 
     # ------------------------------------------------------------ calibration
@@ -618,6 +679,127 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal(PVForecastProvider):
                 total += float(plane.peakpower) * 1000.0
         return total
 
+    def _pv_measurement_window(self) -> Optional[tuple[Any, Any]]:
+        """First and last timestamp that actually carries PV production readings.
+
+        The measurement store holds every meter, not just the PV ones. Load meters
+        routinely reach further than the PV meter in both directions, so deriving
+        the calibration window from the store as a whole would place it where no
+        PV reading exists - which silently skips calibration or downgrades it to
+        hourly fitting.
+        """
+        measurement = self.measurement
+        if measurement.min_datetime is None or measurement.max_datetime is None:
+            return None
+        earliest: Any = None
+        latest: Any = None
+        for key in self.config.measurement.pv_production_emr_keys or []:
+            dates, _ = measurement.key_to_lists(
+                key=key,
+                start_datetime=measurement.min_datetime,
+                end_datetime=measurement.max_datetime.add(minutes=1),
+            )
+            if not dates:
+                continue
+            if earliest is None or compare_datetimes(dates[0], earliest).lt:
+                earliest = dates[0]
+            if latest is None or compare_datetimes(dates[-1], latest).gt:
+                latest = dates[-1]
+        if earliest is None or latest is None:
+            return None
+        return earliest, latest
+
+    def _calibration_interval_minutes(self, start: Any, end: Any) -> int:
+        """Use native forecast slots only when every PV meter resolves them.
+
+        Interpolating an hourly cumulative meter onto quarter hours would create a
+        perfectly flat, but invented, intrahour profile. Fall back to hourly fitting
+        until all configured production meters actually provide native slot readings.
+        """
+        native_minutes = self._settings.resolution_minutes
+        meter_resolutions: list[float] = []
+        for key in self.config.measurement.pv_production_emr_keys or []:
+            dates, _ = self.measurement.key_to_lists(
+                key=key, start_datetime=start, end_datetime=end
+            )
+            if len(dates) < 3:
+                return 60
+            deltas = np.asarray(
+                [
+                    (dates[index] - dates[index - 1]).total_seconds() / 60.0
+                    for index in range(1, len(dates))
+                    if dates[index] > dates[index - 1]
+                ],
+                dtype=float,
+            )
+            if deltas.size == 0:
+                return 60
+            meter_resolutions.append(float(np.median(deltas)))
+
+        if not meter_resolutions:
+            return 60
+        if max(meter_resolutions) <= native_minutes * 1.5:
+            return native_minutes
+        return 60
+
+    def _fit_azimuth_factors(
+        self,
+        modelled_kwh: np.ndarray,
+        measured_kwh: np.ndarray,
+        azimuth: np.ndarray,
+        global_factor: float,
+    ) -> np.ndarray:
+        """Fit an energy-weighted intraday shape while preserving global energy."""
+        settings = self._settings
+        bin_degrees = settings.calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees
+        if bin_degrees <= 0:
+            return np.array([global_factor])
+
+        bin_count = max(1, int(round(360 / bin_degrees)))
+        bin_index = np.clip((azimuth % 360.0) / (360.0 / bin_count), 0, bin_count - 1).astype(int)
+
+        # Fit the shape as a residual around the independently determined global
+        # energy factor. Day-level availability filtering has already removed outages;
+        # energy sums now give productive intervals the influence relevant to the EMS.
+        # The prior shrinks sparse bins back toward a neutral relative factor of one.
+        relative_shape = np.ones(bin_count, dtype=float)
+        prior = settings.calibration_prior_kwh
+        for bin_number in range(bin_count):
+            in_bin = bin_index == bin_number
+            weight = float(modelled_kwh[in_bin].sum())
+            if weight <= 0.0:
+                continue
+            measured_sum = float(measured_kwh[in_bin].sum())
+            raw_shape = measured_sum / (weight * global_factor)
+            relative_shape[bin_number] = (weight * raw_shape + prior) / (weight + prior)
+
+        factors = np.clip(
+            global_factor * relative_shape,
+            settings.calibration_min_factor,
+            settings.calibration_max_factor,
+        )
+
+        # Smooth interpolation changes the exact weighted mean of the bin-centre
+        # values. Renormalize after interpolation so shape correction cannot silently
+        # change the global kWh calibration. Re-clipping is iterated to respect bounds.
+        target_energy = global_factor * float(modelled_kwh.sum())
+        for _ in range(8):
+            scale = self._interpolate_azimuth_factors(azimuth, factors)
+            corrected_energy = float(np.dot(modelled_kwh, scale))
+            if corrected_energy <= 0.0:
+                break
+            correction = target_energy / corrected_energy
+            updated = np.clip(
+                factors * correction,
+                settings.calibration_min_factor,
+                settings.calibration_max_factor,
+            )
+            if np.allclose(updated, factors, rtol=1e-6, atol=1e-8):
+                factors = updated
+                break
+            factors = updated
+        return factors
+
     def _fit_calibration(self, frame: pd.DataFrame) -> Optional[tuple[float, np.ndarray]]:
         """Fit correction factors from measured PV production against the model.
 
@@ -642,21 +824,35 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal(PVForecastProvider):
             return None
 
         measurement = self.measurement
-        if measurement.max_datetime is None or measurement.min_datetime is None:
+        pv_window = self._pv_measurement_window()
+        if pv_window is None:
             logger.info("PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: no PV measurements yet - skipping.")
             return None
+        pv_min_datetime, reference_end = pv_window
 
-        interval = to_duration("1 hour")
+        lookback_days = settings.calibration_days
-        end = measurement.max_datetime.start_of("hour")
+        if settings.calibration_outage_filter_enabled:
-        start = end.subtract(days=settings.calibration_days)
+            lookback_days = max(lookback_days, settings.calibration_reference_days)
-        if compare_datetimes(start, measurement.min_datetime).lt:
+        reference_start = reference_end.subtract(days=lookback_days)
-            start = measurement.min_datetime.start_of("hour").add(hours=1)
+        interval_minutes = self._calibration_interval_minutes(reference_start, reference_end)
+        interval_hours = interval_minutes / 60.0
+        interval = to_duration(f"{interval_minutes} minutes")
+        end = reference_end.start_of("hour")
+        if interval_minutes < 60:
+            end = reference_end.start_of("minute").set(
+                minute=(reference_end.minute // interval_minutes) * interval_minutes
+            )
+        start = end.subtract(days=lookback_days)
+        if compare_datetimes(start, pv_min_datetime).lt:
+            start = pv_min_datetime.start_of("minute").add(minutes=interval_minutes)
         # The model side only exists for the weather window that was requested.
         model_start = to_datetime(frame.index[0].to_pydatetime())
         if compare_datetimes(start, model_start).lt:
-            start = model_start.start_of("hour").add(hours=1)
+            start = model_start.start_of("minute").add(minutes=interval_minutes)
         if compare_datetimes(start, end).ge:
-            logger.info("PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: measurement window too short - skipping.")
+            logger.info(
+                "PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: measurement window too short - skipping."
+            )
             return None
 
         measured_kwh = np.asarray(
@@ -666,24 +862,32 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal(PVForecastProvider):
             dtype=float,
         )
         if measured_kwh.size == 0 or not np.isfinite(measured_kwh).any():
-            logger.info("PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: no usable PV measurements - skipping.")
+            logger.info(
+                "PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: no usable PV measurements - skipping."
+            )
             return None
 
-        # Model side on the same hourly grid. `ac_power` is a mean power per interval,
+        # Model side on the same grid as the real meter. Mean power is converted to
-        # so the hourly mean in W is directly the hourly energy in Wh.
+        # interval energy below; hourly meters stay hourly and native 15-minute meters
-        hourly = frame[["ac_power", "solar_azimuth"]].resample("1h").mean()
+        # retain the shape that matters to the EMS.
+        samples_frame = (
+            frame[["ac_power", "solar_azimuth"]].resample(f"{interval_minutes}min").mean()
+        )
         grid = pd.date_range(
             start=pd.Timestamp(start.in_timezone("UTC").isoformat()),
             periods=len(measured_kwh),
-            freq="1h",
+            freq=f"{interval_minutes}min",
         )
-        hourly = hourly.reindex(grid)
+        samples_frame = samples_frame.reindex(grid)
-        modelled_kwh = hourly["ac_power"].to_numpy(dtype=float) / 1000.0
+        modelled_kwh = samples_frame["ac_power"].to_numpy(dtype=float) / 1000.0 * interval_hours
-        azimuth = hourly["solar_azimuth"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
+        azimuth = samples_frame["solar_azimuth"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
 
         # Only fit where the model says something meaningful is being produced. Dawn and
         # dusk intervals otherwise dominate the ratio with noise.
-        floor_kwh = max(0.02 * self._installed_ac_capacity_w() / 1000.0, 0.05)
+        floor_kwh = max(
+            0.02 * self._installed_ac_capacity_w() / 1000.0 * interval_hours,
+            0.05 * interval_hours,
+        )
         usable = (
             np.isfinite(modelled_kwh)
             & np.isfinite(measured_kwh)
@@ -691,12 +895,108 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal(PVForecastProvider):
             & (modelled_kwh > floor_kwh)
             & (measured_kwh >= 0.0)
         )
-        if usable.sum() < 12:
+        shape_usable = usable.copy()
+
+        # Calibration represents the available PV potential. A battery or inverter
+        # outage can make an otherwise healthy plant cover only local demand; those
+        # intervals must not be learned as a permanent model loss. Detect this at day
+        # level, because individual cloudy hours are much too noisy for a reliable
+        # availability decision.
+        local_days = samples_frame.index.tz_convert(self.config.general.timezone).normalize()
+        fit_start = pd.Timestamp(
+            end.subtract(days=settings.calibration_days)
+            .in_timezone(self.config.general.timezone)
+            .isoformat()
+        ).normalize()
+
+        if settings.calibration_outage_filter_enabled and usable.any():
+            samples = pd.DataFrame(
+                {
+                    "modelled_kwh": modelled_kwh[usable],
+                    "measured_kwh": measured_kwh[usable],
+                    "local_day": local_days[usable],
+                }
+            )
+            daily = samples.groupby("local_day").agg(
+                modelled_kwh=("modelled_kwh", "sum"),
+                measured_kwh=("measured_kwh", "sum"),
+                usable_intervals=("modelled_kwh", "size"),
+            )
+            daily["ratio"] = daily["measured_kwh"] / daily["modelled_kwh"]
+
+            # Low-yield weather days do not carry enough evidence to call an outage.
+            # Half an equivalent full-load hour scales naturally with plant size.
+            minimum_day_kwh = max(0.5 * self._installed_ac_capacity_w() / 1000.0, 1.0)
+            reference_candidates = daily[
+                (daily["modelled_kwh"] >= minimum_day_kwh) & np.isfinite(daily["ratio"])
+            ]
+
+            outage_days = pd.DatetimeIndex([])
+            reference_ratio = float("nan")
+            if len(reference_candidates) >= settings.calibration_min_healthy_days:
+                # The upper quartile is a robust estimate of the available plant level:
+                # outages and curtailment only pull the ratio down, while a few weather
+                # outliers cannot dominate it as a maximum would.
+                reference_ratio = float(reference_candidates["ratio"].quantile(0.75))
+                outage_limit = reference_ratio * settings.calibration_outage_threshold
+                outage_days = pd.DatetimeIndex(
+                    reference_candidates.index[reference_candidates["ratio"] < outage_limit]
+                )
+
+                # A cloudy day inside a known low-production block can accidentally
+                # resemble a healthy ratio because both numerator and denominator are
+                # small. Bridge a single-day gap between two detected outage days so a
+                # continuous plant event is not partly admitted into the fit.
+                ordered_days = pd.DatetimeIndex(daily.index).sort_values()
+                bridged_days = []
+                for index in range(1, len(ordered_days) - 1):
+                    previous_day = ordered_days[index - 1]
+                    day = ordered_days[index]
+                    next_day = ordered_days[index + 1]
+                    if (
+                        previous_day in outage_days
+                        and next_day in outage_days
+                        and (day.date() - previous_day.date()).days == 1
+                        and (next_day.date() - day.date()).days == 1
+                    ):
+                        bridged_days.append(day)
+                if bridged_days:
+                    outage_days = outage_days.union(pd.DatetimeIndex(bridged_days)).sort_values()
+
+            healthy_days = pd.DatetimeIndex(daily.index).difference(outage_days).sort_values()
+            recent_healthy_days = healthy_days[healthy_days >= fit_start]
+            if len(recent_healthy_days) < settings.calibration_min_healthy_days:
+                fit_days = healthy_days[-settings.calibration_min_healthy_days :]
+            else:
+                fit_days = recent_healthy_days
+
+            # The recent healthy window tracks the current energy level. The stable
+            # intraday signature uses the full healthy reference window, avoiding noisy
+            # shape factors learned from only a handful of days.
+            shape_usable &= np.asarray(local_days.isin(healthy_days), dtype=bool)
+            usable &= np.asarray(local_days.isin(fit_days), dtype=bool)
+            if len(outage_days) > 0:
+                day_list = ", ".join(day.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") for day in outage_days)
+                logger.info(
+                    "PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: excluded probable outage/"
+                    f"curtailment days [{day_list}] (healthy reference "
+                    f"{reference_ratio:.3f})."
+                )
+        else:
+            usable &= np.asarray(local_days >= fit_start, dtype=bool)
+            shape_usable = usable.copy()
+
+        minimum_samples = math.ceil(12 / interval_hours)
+        if usable.sum() < minimum_samples:
             logger.info(
-                f"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: only {int(usable.sum())} usable hours - skipping."
+                "PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: only "
+                f"{int(usable.sum())} usable {interval_minutes}-minute intervals - skipping."
             )
             return None
 
+        shape_modelled_kwh = modelled_kwh[shape_usable]
+        shape_measured_kwh = measured_kwh[shape_usable]
+        shape_azimuth = azimuth[shape_usable]
         modelled_kwh = modelled_kwh[usable]
         measured_kwh = measured_kwh[usable]
         azimuth = azimuth[usable]
@@ -712,54 +1012,83 @@ class PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal(PVForecastProvider):
             )
         )
 
-        bin_degrees = settings.calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees
+        factors = self._fit_azimuth_factors(
-        if bin_degrees <= 0:
+            shape_modelled_kwh,
+            shape_measured_kwh,
+            shape_azimuth,
+            global_factor,
+        )
+        if len(factors) == 1:
             logger.info(
                 f"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration: global factor {global_factor:.3f} "
-                f"from {usable.sum()} hours."
+                f"from {usable.sum()} {interval_minutes}-minute intervals."
-            )
-            return global_factor, np.array([global_factor])
-
-        bin_count = max(1, int(round(360 / bin_degrees)))
-        bin_index = np.clip((azimuth % 360.0) / (360.0 / bin_count), 0, bin_count - 1).astype(int)
-
-        # Weight each bin by its modelled energy and shrink toward the global factor, so
-        # a thinly sampled bin cannot swing the forecast on its own.
-        prior = settings.calibration_prior_kwh
-        factors = np.full(bin_count, global_factor, dtype=float)
-        for b in range(bin_count):
-            in_bin = bin_index == b
-            weight = float(modelled_kwh[in_bin].sum())
-            if weight <= 0.0:
-                continue
-            raw = float(measured_kwh[in_bin].sum()) / weight
-            factors[b] = np.clip(
-                (weight * raw + prior * global_factor) / (weight + prior),
-                settings.calibration_min_factor,
-                settings.calibration_max_factor,
             )
+            return global_factor, factors
 
         # Report how much of the bias the fit actually removes on its own training window.
         before = float(np.abs(modelled_kwh - measured_kwh).mean())
-        after = float(np.abs(modelled_kwh * factors[bin_index] - measured_kwh).mean())
+        fitted_scale = self._interpolate_azimuth_factors(azimuth, factors)
+        after = float(np.abs(modelled_kwh * fitted_scale - measured_kwh).mean())
         logger.info(
-            f"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration over {usable.sum()} h: global factor "
+            f"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal calibration over {usable.sum()} intervals: global factor "
-            f"{global_factor:.3f}, {bin_count} azimuth bins, "
+            f"{global_factor:.3f}, {len(factors)} azimuth bins at {interval_minutes}-minute "
-            f"MAE {before:.3f} -> {after:.3f} kWh/h"
+            "measurement resolution, "
+            f"MAE {before:.3f} -> {after:.3f} kWh per interval"
         )
         return global_factor, factors
 
     @staticmethod
-    def _apply_calibration(
+    def _interpolate_azimuth_factors(azimuth: np.ndarray, factors: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
-        frame: pd.DataFrame, factors: np.ndarray, ac_cap_w: float
+        """Interpolate fitted bin-centre factors without a discontinuity at north."""
-    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        """Scale the modelled power by the per-azimuth factor of each interval."""
         bin_count = len(factors)
+        if bin_count == 1:
+            return np.full(len(azimuth), factors[0], dtype=float)
+
+        bin_width = 360.0 / bin_count
+        centers = (np.arange(bin_count, dtype=float) + 0.5) * bin_width
+        interpolation_azimuths = np.concatenate(
+            ([centers[-1] - 360.0], centers, [centers[0] + 360.0])
+        )
+        interpolation_factors = np.concatenate(([factors[-1]], factors, [factors[0]]))
+        return np.interp(
+            np.nan_to_num(azimuth % 360.0),
+            interpolation_azimuths,
+            interpolation_factors,
+        )
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _apply_calibration(
+        frame: pd.DataFrame,
+        factors: np.ndarray,
+        ac_cap_w: float,
+        global_factor: Optional[float] = None,
+        timezone: Optional[str] = None,
+    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """Scale power with a smooth, circular interpolation of azimuth factors."""
         azimuth = frame["solar_azimuth"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
-        bin_index = np.clip(
+        scale = PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal._interpolate_azimuth_factors(azimuth, factors)
-            np.nan_to_num(azimuth % 360.0) / (360.0 / bin_count), 0, bin_count - 1
+
-        ).astype(int)
+        # Preserve the independently fitted kWh correction for every forecast day.
-        scale = factors[bin_index]
+        # Azimuth factors may redistribute energy within a day, but cannot change its
+        # calibrated total (apart from the physical inverter cap applied below).
+        if global_factor is not None and len(frame) > 0:
+            ac_power = frame["ac_power"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
+            if isinstance(frame.index, pd.DatetimeIndex):
+                day_index = frame.index
+                if timezone is not None and day_index.tz is not None:
+                    day_index = day_index.tz_convert(timezone)
+                groups = pd.Series(np.arange(len(frame)), index=frame.index).groupby(
+                    day_index.normalize()
+                )
+                group_indices = (group.to_numpy() for _, group in groups)
+            else:
+                group_indices = (np.arange(len(frame)),)
+            for indices in group_indices:
+                model_energy = float(ac_power[indices].sum())
+                shaped_energy = float(np.dot(ac_power[indices], scale[indices]))
+                if model_energy > 0.0 and shaped_energy > 0.0:
+                    scale[indices] *= global_factor * model_energy / shaped_energy
+
         frame = frame.copy()
         frame["dc_power"] = frame["dc_power"] * scale
         frame["ac_power"] = frame["ac_power"] * scale

tests/test_measurement.py

@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+import json
+
 import numpy as np
 import pytest
 from pendulum import datetime, duration
@@ -430,3 +432,30 @@ class TestMeasurement:
         result = measurement_eos.load_total_kwh(start_datetime=start_datetime, end_datetime=end_datetime, interval=interval)
         expected = np.array([100])  # Only one complete interval covered
         np.testing.assert_array_equal(result, expected)
+
+    def test_load_restores_file_records_into_singleton(self, measurement_eos, config_eos, tmp_path):
+        """File loading must not lose records when validating the Measurement singleton."""
+        # ConfigEOS and Measurement are singletons that outlive this module, so
+        # every global this test touches has to be put back; otherwise later
+        # modules read their measurements from a deleted tmp_path.
+        previous_folder = config_eos.general.data_folder_path
+        previous_keys = config_eos.measurement.load_emr_keys
+        previous_records = measurement_eos.records
+        config_eos.general.data_folder_path = tmp_path
+        config_eos.measurement.load_emr_keys = ["load0_mr"]
+        record = MeasurementDataRecord(date_time=to_datetime("2026-08-01T12:00:00Z"))
+        record["load0_mr"] = 123.5
+        payload = {"records": [record.model_dump(mode="json")]}
+        (tmp_path / "measurement.json").write_text(
+            json.dumps(payload), encoding="utf-8", newline="\n"
+        )
+
+        try:
+            measurement_eos.records = []
+            assert measurement_eos.load() is True
+            assert len(measurement_eos.records) == 1
+            assert measurement_eos.records[0]["load0_mr"] == pytest.approx(123.5)
+        finally:
+            measurement_eos.records = previous_records
+            config_eos.measurement.load_emr_keys = previous_keys
+            config_eos.general.data_folder_path = previous_folder

tests/test_pvforecastakkudoktorlocal.py

@@ -126,7 +126,9 @@ def test_records_are_shifted_to_interval_start(pvforecast_instance):
     shifted = pvforecast_instance._forecast_frame(synthetic_openmeteo())
 
     pvforecast_instance.config.pvforecast.provider_settings.PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal = (
-        PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings(resolution_minutes=15, shift_to_interval_start=False)
+        PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings(
+            resolution_minutes=15, shift_to_interval_start=False
+        )
     )
     raw = pvforecast_instance._forecast_frame(synthetic_openmeteo())
 
@@ -173,7 +175,9 @@ def test_horizon_shading_reduces_yield(pvforecast_instance):
 
 
 def test_update_data_writes_records(pvforecast_instance):
-    with patch.object(PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal, "_request_forecast", return_value=synthetic_openmeteo()):
+    with patch.object(
+        PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal, "_request_forecast", return_value=synthetic_openmeteo()
+    ):
         pvforecast_instance._update_data(force_update=True)
 
     assert len(pvforecast_instance.records) > 0
@@ -210,6 +214,59 @@ def _feed_measurements(
     )
 
 
+def _feed_measurements_with_recent_outage(
+    instance: PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal,
+    frame: pd.DataFrame,
+    healthy_bias: float,
+    outage_bias: float,
+    outage_days: int,
+    key: str,
+) -> None:
+    """Write a healthy meter history followed by demand-limited PV production."""
+    instance.config.measurement.pv_production_emr_keys = [key]
+    measurement = get_measurement()
+
+    hourly = frame["ac_power"].resample("1h").mean()
+    hourly = hourly.loc[hourly.index < START]
+    outage_start = START.subtract(days=outage_days)
+    healthy_looking_gap = outage_start.add(days=2).date()
+
+    cumulative = 0.0
+    for timestamp, power_w in hourly.items():
+        measurement.update_value(
+            pendulum.instance(timestamp.to_pydatetime()), key, round(cumulative, 6)
+        )
+        in_outage = timestamp >= outage_start and timestamp.date() != healthy_looking_gap
+        bias = outage_bias if in_outage else healthy_bias
+        cumulative += float(power_w) * bias / 1000.0
+    measurement.update_value(
+        pendulum.instance(hourly.index[-1].to_pydatetime()).add(hours=1),
+        key,
+        round(cumulative, 6),
+    )
+
+
+def _feed_native_quarter_hour_measurements(
+    instance: PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal, frame: pd.DataFrame, bias: float, key: str
+) -> None:
+    """Write cumulative PV readings at the provider's native 15-minute cadence."""
+    instance.config.measurement.pv_production_emr_keys = [key]
+    measurement = get_measurement()
+    slots = frame.loc[frame.index < START, "ac_power"]
+
+    cumulative = 0.0
+    for timestamp, power_w in slots.items():
+        measurement.update_value(
+            pendulum.instance(timestamp.to_pydatetime()), key, round(cumulative, 6)
+        )
+        cumulative += float(power_w) * 0.25 * bias / 1000.0
+    measurement.update_value(
+        pendulum.instance(slots.index[-1].to_pydatetime()).add(minutes=15),
+        key,
+        round(cumulative, 6),
+    )
+
+
 def test_calibration_is_off_by_default(pvforecast_instance):
     frame = pvforecast_instance._forecast_frame(synthetic_openmeteo(), calibrate=False)
     assert pvforecast_instance._fit_calibration(frame) is None
@@ -246,6 +303,84 @@ def test_calibration_recovers_a_systematic_bias(pvforecast_instance):
     assert corrected["ac_power"].sum() == pytest.approx(frame["ac_power"].sum() * global_factor)
 
 
+def test_calibration_excludes_recent_demand_limited_outage(pvforecast_instance, caplog):
+    """A battery outage must not teach demand-limited PV as available generation."""
+    pvforecast_instance.config.pvforecast.provider_settings.PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal = (
+        PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings(
+            calibration_enabled=True,
+            calibration_days=5,
+            calibration_reference_days=14,
+            calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees=0,
+            calibration_min_factor=0.2,
+        )
+    )
+
+    frame = pvforecast_instance._forecast_frame(synthetic_openmeteo(), calibrate=False)
+    _feed_measurements_with_recent_outage(
+        pvforecast_instance,
+        frame,
+        healthy_bias=0.8,
+        outage_bias=0.2,
+        outage_days=5,
+        key="pv_demand_limited_emr",
+    )
+
+    with caplog.at_level("INFO"):
+        calibration = pvforecast_instance._fit_calibration(frame)
+
+    assert calibration is not None
+    global_factor, factors = calibration
+    assert global_factor == pytest.approx(0.8, abs=0.03)
+    assert factors == pytest.approx([global_factor])
+    assert "excluded probable outage/curtailment days" in caplog.text
+    # A single statistically healthy-looking day inside the outage is bridged.
+    assert "2025-06-12" in caplog.text
+
+    # Filtering only selects training data. Applying a global factor preserves the
+    # native quarter-hour shape instead of replacing it with hourly bucket values.
+    corrected = pvforecast_instance._apply_calibration(frame, factors, 10000.0)
+    producing = frame["ac_power"] > 0.0
+    assert corrected.index.to_series().diff().dropna().unique().tolist() == [
+        pd.Timedelta(minutes=15)
+    ]
+    assert (
+        corrected.loc[producing, "ac_power"] / frame.loc[producing, "ac_power"]
+    ).to_numpy() == pytest.approx(np.full(producing.sum(), global_factor))
+
+
+def test_calibration_uses_real_quarter_hour_measurements(pvforecast_instance, caplog):
+    """Native meter slots permit shape calibration without inventing intrahour data."""
+    pvforecast_instance.config.pvforecast.provider_settings.PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal = (
+        PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings(
+            calibration_enabled=True,
+            calibration_days=14,
+            calibration_reference_days=14,
+            calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees=0,
+        )
+    )
+    frame = pvforecast_instance._forecast_frame(synthetic_openmeteo(), calibrate=False)
+    _feed_native_quarter_hour_measurements(
+        pvforecast_instance, frame, bias=0.8, key="pv_quarter_hour_emr"
+    )
+
+    assert (
+        pvforecast_instance._calibration_interval_minutes(
+            START.subtract(days=14), START
+        )
+        == 15
+    )
+    with caplog.at_level("INFO"):
+        calibration = pvforecast_instance._fit_calibration(frame)
+
+    assert calibration is not None
+    global_factor, _ = calibration
+    assert global_factor == pytest.approx(0.8, abs=0.03)
+    assert (
+        "15-minute measurement resolution" in caplog.text
+        or "15-minute intervals" in caplog.text
+    )
+
+
 def test_calibration_factor_is_clamped(pvforecast_instance):
     """A wildly wrong meter must not be allowed to swing the forecast."""
     pvforecast_instance.config.pvforecast.provider_settings.PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal = (
@@ -273,6 +408,73 @@ def test_calibration_respects_the_inverter_cap(pvforecast_instance):
     assert corrected["ac_power"].max() <= 10000.0 + 1e-6
 
 
+def test_azimuth_calibration_is_interpolated_smoothly():
+    """Azimuth correction must not introduce steps into the quarter-hour plan."""
+    frame = pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            "solar_azimuth": [44.9, 45.0, 45.1, 134.9, 135.0, 135.1],
+            "dc_power": [1000.0] * 6,
+            "ac_power": [1000.0] * 6,
+        }
+    )
+    corrected = PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal._apply_calibration(
+        frame, np.array([0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 1.0]), ac_cap_w=2000.0
+    )
+
+    assert corrected.loc[1, "ac_power"] == pytest.approx(500.0)
+    assert corrected.loc[4, "ac_power"] == pytest.approx(1000.0)
+    assert abs(corrected.loc[2, "ac_power"] - corrected.loc[0, "ac_power"]) < 2.0
+    assert abs(corrected.loc[5, "ac_power"] - corrected.loc[3, "ac_power"]) < 2.0
+
+
+def test_azimuth_shape_preserves_each_days_global_energy():
+    """The EMS gets a changed shape without a changed daily energy budget."""
+    index = pd.date_range("2025-06-01", periods=8, freq="12h", tz="UTC")
+    frame = pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            "solar_azimuth": [45.0, 225.0, 45.0, 225.0, 45.0, 225.0, 45.0, 225.0],
+            "dc_power": [100.0, 300.0, 200.0, 200.0, 300.0, 100.0, 150.0, 250.0],
+            "ac_power": [100.0, 300.0, 200.0, 200.0, 300.0, 100.0, 150.0, 250.0],
+        },
+        index=index,
+    )
+    global_factor = 0.8
+    corrected = PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal._apply_calibration(
+        frame,
+        np.array([0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 1.0]),
+        ac_cap_w=10_000.0,
+        global_factor=global_factor,
+        timezone="UTC",
+    )
+
+    raw_daily = frame["ac_power"].resample("1D").sum()
+    corrected_daily = corrected["ac_power"].resample("1D").sum()
+    assert corrected_daily.to_numpy() == pytest.approx(
+        raw_daily.to_numpy() * global_factor
+    )
+    assert np.std(corrected["ac_power"] / frame["ac_power"]) > 0.01
+
+
+def test_azimuth_shape_fit_preserves_global_energy(pvforecast_instance):
+    """Intraday correction must not undo the independently fitted daily kWh."""
+    centers = np.arange(22.5, 360.0, 45.0)
+    azimuth = np.repeat(centers, 20)
+    modelled_kwh = np.ones(len(azimuth))
+    expected_shape = np.repeat([0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.1, 1.0, 0.9], 20)
+    global_factor = 0.8
+    measured_kwh = modelled_kwh * global_factor * expected_shape
+
+    factors = pvforecast_instance._fit_azimuth_factors(
+        modelled_kwh, measured_kwh, azimuth, global_factor
+    )
+    fitted_scale = pvforecast_instance._interpolate_azimuth_factors(azimuth, factors)
+
+    assert np.std(factors) > 0.01
+    assert np.dot(modelled_kwh, fitted_scale) == pytest.approx(
+        global_factor * modelled_kwh.sum(), rel=1e-6
+    )
+
+
 def test_forecast_frame_applies_the_calibration(pvforecast_instance):
     """The correction must reach every caller of the chain, not just `_update_data`."""
     pvforecast_instance.config.pvforecast.provider_settings.PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal = (