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feat(optimization): split the control horizon from the forecast tail

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The optimizer treated the end of `optimization.horizon_hours` as the end of the
world: energy left in the battery there was worth a single configured price per
kWh, so it either dumped the battery into the last hours or hoarded it,
depending on that one number.

The horizon is now two spans. `horizon_hours` still receives every control
command. The new `optimization.tail_horizon_hours` (default 48 h) is a pure
lookahead that never produces a command. In AUTO terminal-value mode a
deterministic dynamic program solves that tail backwards on a 101-point SoC
grid using the production battery and inverter models - SoC bounds, power caps,
conversion losses, configured charge and export rates, direct-marketing
permission and LCOS on delivered DC energy - and the existing AUTO proxy
supplies the continuation value at the tail end. Genetic fitness reads the
resulting curve. `tail_horizon_hours: 0` restores the plain proxy at the control
end, FIXED is unchanged.

The forecast budget is reported, never enforced by refusal: a tail that does not
fit is shortened to what the forecast covers and reported as
`effective_tail_hours`, and a control horizon that does not fit is warned about
at configuration time and rejected by the optimizer at run time, which knows
which series ran out. `prediction.hours` defaults to 72 so the new defaults fit
out of the box; existing shorter configurations keep starting.

Control arrays and warm-start genomes now begin at the run timestamp rather than
midnight, flagged by `controls_start_at_now` so the adapters still read older
solutions. `forecast_interval_seconds` declares the resolution of shortened
native quarter-hour inputs.

Required forecasts are no longer silently replaced by demo providers. A missing
PV, price, load, feed-in or weather forecast used to rewrite the configured
provider and retry, so a run could quietly optimize against invented data.
Missing values now stay missing, and provider values are held only within their
own source interval instead of being extended indefinitely.

Also fixes a config update that could leave EOS half-updated: the merged
candidate is validated before the singleton is reinitialized.

Four provider tests that hard-coded the old 48 h prediction default are rewritten
to derive their expectations from the configured horizon.
This commit is contained in:
Andreas
2026-09-09 07:56:38 +02:00
parent 88150d46e3
commit a2f4ef6f54
37 changed files with 3589 additions and 502 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
tests/test_homeappliance.py
+16 -16
View File
@@ -156,7 +156,7 @@ def _optimizer(config_eos, *, prediction_hours: int, horizon_hours: int, interva
config_eos.merge_settings_from_dict(
{
"prediction": {"hours": prediction_hours},
"optimization": {"horizon_hours": horizon_hours, "interval": interval},
"optimization": {"tail_horizon_hours": 0, "horizon_hours": horizon_hours, "interval": interval},
}
)
ems_eos.set_start_datetime(to_datetime().set(hour=hour, minute=0))
@@ -165,17 +165,17 @@ def _optimizer(config_eos, *, prediction_hours: int, horizon_hours: int, interva
def test_once_layout_single_gene(config_eos):
opt = _optimizer(config_eos, prediction_hours=48, horizon_hours=48, interval=3600, hour=10)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime.set(hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime
appliance = _appliance(48, 1.0, device_id="d", consumption_wh=1000, duration_h=2)
layout = opt._build_appliance_layout([appliance], slot0)
assert layout.n_genes == 1
assert layout.genes[0].run_date is None
assert layout.genes[0].allowed_start_slots[0] == opt._start_day_slot()
assert layout.genes[0].allowed_start_slots[0] == 0
def test_once_no_valid_start_raises(config_eos):
opt = _optimizer(config_eos, prediction_hours=48, horizon_hours=10, interval=3600, hour=10)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime.set(hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime
# 02:00 window is in the past (start slot 10) and day 1 is beyond the 10 h horizon.
windows = TimeWindowSequence(
windows=[TimeWindow(start_time=to_time("02:00"), duration=to_duration("1 hours"))]
@@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ def test_once_no_valid_start_raises(config_eos):
def test_daily_layout_one_gene_per_calendar_day(config_eos):
opt = _optimizer(config_eos, prediction_hours=72, horizon_hours=72, interval=3600, hour=0)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime.set(hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime
windows = TimeWindowSequence(
windows=[TimeWindow(start_time=to_time("10:00"), duration=to_duration("2 hours"))]
)
@@ -212,7 +212,7 @@ def test_daily_layout_one_gene_per_calendar_day(config_eos):
def test_daily_layout_partial_first_day(config_eos):
"""A partial first day (start after the window) produces no gene for that day."""
opt = _optimizer(config_eos, prediction_hours=48, horizon_hours=48, interval=3600, hour=14)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime.set(hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime
windows = TimeWindowSequence(
windows=[TimeWindow(start_time=to_time("10:00"), duration=to_duration("2 hours"))]
)
@@ -226,9 +226,9 @@ def test_daily_layout_partial_first_day(config_eos):
time_windows=windows,
)
layout = opt._build_appliance_layout([appliance], slot0)
# Day 0 window (10:00-12:00) is already in the past at start hour 14 -> only day 1.
assert layout.n_genes == 1
assert all(slot >= opt._start_day_slot() for slot in layout.genes[0].allowed_start_slots)
# Day 0 window (10:00-12:00) is already in the past at start hour 14 -> days 1 and 2 are inside the 48 hours from now.
assert layout.n_genes == 2
assert all(slot >= 0 for slot in layout.genes[0].allowed_start_slots)
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- #
@@ -238,7 +238,7 @@ def test_multiple_appliances_scheduled_and_aggregate(config_eos):
config_eos.merge_settings_from_dict(
{
"prediction": {"hours": 48},
"optimization": {
"optimization": {"tail_horizon_hours": 0,
"horizon_hours": 48,
"interval": 3600,
"genetic": {
@@ -343,15 +343,15 @@ def test_max_home_appliances_is_upper_bound():
def test_start_solution_layout_mismatch_is_ignored(config_eos):
opt = _optimizer(config_eos, prediction_hours=48, horizon_hours=48, interval=3600, hour=10)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime.set(hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime
appliance = _appliance(48, 1.0, device_id="d", consumption_wh=1000, duration_h=1)
opt.appliance_layout = opt._build_appliance_layout([appliance], slot0)
opt.optimize_ev = False
valid_index_count = len(opt.appliance_layout.genes[0].allowed_start_slots)
# A tail index beyond the allowed range must be rejected.
bad_solution = [0] * opt.total_slots + [valid_index_count + 5]
bad_solution = [0] * opt.control_slots + [valid_index_count + 5]
assert opt._start_solution_matches_layout(bad_solution) is False
good_solution = [0] * opt.total_slots + [0]
good_solution = [0] * opt.control_slots + [0]
assert opt._start_solution_matches_layout(good_solution) is True
@@ -456,14 +456,14 @@ def test_deadline_strict_keeps_empty_result():
def test_deadline_strict_once_raises(config_eos):
"""A ONCE consumer with an unreachable STRICT deadline fails the layout."""
opt = _optimizer(config_eos, prediction_hours=48, horizon_hours=48, interval=3600, hour=12)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime.set(hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
slot0 = opt.ems.start_datetime
appliance = _appliance(
48,
1.0,
device_id="d",
consumption_wh=2000,
duration_h=2,
deadline_datetime=slot0.add(hours=10),
deadline_datetime=slot0.set(hour=10),
deadline_policy="STRICT",
)
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="no valid start"):
@@ -501,7 +501,7 @@ def test_deadline_end_to_end_optimization(config_eos):
config_eos.merge_settings_from_dict(
{
"prediction": {"hours": 48},
"optimization": {
"optimization": {"tail_horizon_hours": 0,
"horizon_hours": 48,
"interval": 3600,
"genetic": {