feat(pvforecast): add adaptive per-plane PV learning and diagnostics (#1422)

PV arrays with different orientations and curtailment need separate plant calibration and weather correction. This opt-in provider publishes normal EOS AC/DC forecast keys at 15-minute resolution.

- Preserve daily per-plane energy/shape calibration and validated short-term local/trend selection. Curtailment-sensitive arrays require a fresh release flag or an explicitly configured learning guard.
-  Add switchable empirical solar-angle response relative to separate eligible reference arrays, removing their common weather error. This learns angular residuals, not physical angles or a measured geometric horizon.
-  Archive actually received weather model inputs, first local receipt and frozen per-member PV candidates. Returned past weather is excluded; unknown source issuance remains explicit. Learn model weights and forecast-regime bias separately at 2–6, 6–24 and 24–48 hours.
- New long-horizon candidates remain in shadow until their genuinely issued outputs improve equal-day MAE by the configured margin, win on at least 60% of validation days and pass a matched-support energy-bias guard. Insufficient evidence retains calibration. Daily yields still require complete local days, including DST.
- Expose fitted parameters, independent training/validation day counts, errors, selected methods and persistence in the existing status API, with additional normal prediction keys for Grafana. Retain physical DC through angular/weather corrections an  enforce individual inverter AC limits.

Co-authored-by: Normann <github@koldrack.com>
Co-authored-by: Christin <chrissi@von-perbandt.de>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-authored-by: YMT <yn276364@dal.ca>
Co-authored-by: sarankumar1325 <120080287+sarankumar1325@users.noreply.github.com>
This commit is contained in:
Andreas
2026-11-03 15:31:32 +01:00
committed by GitHub
co-authored by Normann Christin Claude Opus 5.5 YMT sarankumar1325
parent 298d46a527
commit f804d48072
24 changed files with 6063 additions and 13 deletions
+70
View File
@@ -328,6 +328,56 @@
"calibration_min_factor": 0.5,
"calibration_max_factor": 1.5
},
"adaptive": {
"backend": "local",
"resolution_minutes": 15,
"forecast_days": null,
"past_days": null,
"weather_models": [
"best_match",
"icon_d2"
],
"transposition_model": "perez",
"albedo": 0.25,
"inverter_efficiency": 0.96,
"temperature_coefficient": -0.36,
"apply_iam": true,
"shift_to_interval_start": true,
"calibration_enabled": false,
"calibration_days": 30,
"calibration_reference_days": 30,
"calibration_outage_filter_enabled": true,
"calibration_outage_threshold": 0.55,
"calibration_min_healthy_days": 3,
"calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees": 45,
"calibration_prior_kwh": 5.0,
"calibration_min_factor": 0.5,
"calibration_max_factor": 1.5,
"regional_weather_model": "icon_d2",
"regional_horizon_hours": 6,
"learning_days": 21,
"min_training_days": 5,
"max_ac_power_w": 0,
"nominal_total_peakpower_kw": null,
"diagnostics_days": 7,
"archive_retention_days": 60,
"nowcast_enabled": true,
"trend_enabled": true,
"solar_response_enabled": true,
"weather_response_enabled": true,
"correction_mode": "auto",
"validation_days": 7,
"min_validation_days": 3,
"min_validation_samples": 32,
"min_validation_improvement": 0.02,
"training_delay_minutes": 15,
"total_measurement_key": null,
"total_curtailment_sensitive": false,
"total_curtailment_key": null,
"total_learning_guard_key": null,
"total_learning_guard_max": null,
"total_learning_guard_max_gap_seconds": 600
},
"pvforecastimport": {
"import_file_path": null,
"import_json": null
@@ -360,6 +410,16 @@
},
"planes": [
{
"name": null,
"measurement_key": null,
"nowcast_reference": false,
"curtailment_sensitive": false,
"parameters_estimated": false,
"correction_group": null,
"curtailment_key": null,
"learning_guard_key": null,
"learning_guard_max": null,
"learning_guard_max_gap_seconds": 600,
"surface_tilt": 10.0,
"surface_azimuth": 180.0,
"userhorizon": [
@@ -382,6 +442,16 @@
"strings_per_inverter": 2
},
{
"name": null,
"measurement_key": null,
"nowcast_reference": false,
"curtailment_sensitive": false,
"parameters_estimated": false,
"correction_group": null,
"curtailment_key": null,
"learning_guard_key": null,
"learning_guard_max": null,
"learning_guard_max_gap_seconds": 600,
"surface_tilt": 20.0,
"surface_azimuth": 90.0,
"userhorizon": [