feat(pvforecast): add adaptive per-plane PV learning and diagnostics (#1422)

mirror of https://github.com/Akkudoktor-EOS/EOS.git synced 2026-11-13 09:13:30 +01:00

PV arrays with different orientations and curtailment need separate plant calibration and weather correction. This opt-in provider publishes normal EOS AC/DC forecast keys at 15-minute resolution.

- Preserve daily per-plane energy/shape calibration and validated short-term local/trend selection. Curtailment-sensitive arrays require a fresh release flag or an explicitly configured learning guard.
- Add switchable empirical solar-angle response relative to separate eligible reference arrays, removing their common weather error. This learns angular residuals, not physical angles or a measured geometric horizon.
- Archive actually received weather model inputs, first local receipt and frozen per-member PV candidates. Returned past weather is excluded; unknown source issuance remains explicit. Learn model weights and forecast-regime bias separately at 2–6, 6–24 and 24–48 hours.
- New long-horizon candidates remain in shadow until their genuinely issued outputs improve equal-day MAE by the configured margin, win on at least 60% of validation days and pass a matched-support energy-bias guard. Insufficient evidence retains calibration. Daily yields still require complete local days, including DST.
- Expose fitted parameters, independent training/validation day counts, errors, selected methods and persistence in the existing status API, with additional normal prediction keys for Grafana. Retain physical DC through angular/weather corrections an enforce individual inverter AC limits.

Co-authored-by: Normann <github@koldrack.com>
Co-authored-by: Christin <chrissi@von-perbandt.de>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-authored-by: YMT <yn276364@dal.ca>
Co-authored-by: sarankumar1325 <120080287+sarankumar1325@users.noreply.github.com>

This commit is contained in:

Andreas

2026-11-03 15:31:32 +01:00

committed by

GitHub

co-authored by

Normann

Christin

Claude Opus 5.5

YMT

sarankumar1325

parent 298d46a527

commit f804d48072

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