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EOS/docs/_generated/configpvforecast.md
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Andreas f976335122 feat(pvforecast): local pvlib provider with measurement calibration
Add PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal, which runs the modelling chain inside EOS on
raw Open-Meteo irradiance instead of calling a forecast service: solar
position, horizon shading, plane transposition, incidence-angle modifier,
cell temperature, PVWatts DC and inverter AC.

It needs no API key and serves up to 16 days at 15-minute resolution from a
single hourly request, which is what keeps `optimization.tail_horizon_hours`
fed - services wrapping Open-Meteo cut the horizon much shorter. Several
Open-Meteo models can be listed in `weather_models` and are averaged per
variable at no extra request cost.

With `calibration_enabled` the provider fits itself against
`measurement.pv_production_emr_keys` over the past `calibration_days`: a
global scale factor plus optional per-solar-azimuth factors, each weighted by
modelled energy, shrunk toward the global factor by `calibration_prior_kwh`
and clamped to `[calibration_min_factor, calibration_max_factor]`. The
comparison runs on past intervals, where Open-Meteo serves analysed rather
than forecast weather, so it corrects the error of the PV model and not that
of the weather forecast.

Calibration is a scale factor on the output and never touches `userhorizon`,
`surface_tilt`, `surface_azimuth` or `peakpower`. The docs say so, and say
why a short window and a plant fault inside it are the two ways to end up
with a misleading factor.

Also add `Measurement.pv_production_total_kwh()` alongside the existing load
total, and `scripts/pvforecast_backtest.py`, which scores configuration
variants against the stored meter readings without waiting for new forecasts
to come true.
2026-09-06 18:21:20 +02:00

529 lines
21 KiB
Markdown

## PV Forecast Configuration
<!-- pyml disable line-length -->
:::{table} pvforecast
:widths: 10 20 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Environment Variable | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | -------------------- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| max_planes | `EOS_PVFORECAST__MAX_PLANES` | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `0` | Maximum number of planes that can be set |
| planes | `EOS_PVFORECAST__PLANES` | `Optional[list[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecast.PVForecastPlaneSetting]]` | `rw` | `None` | Plane configuration. |
| planes_azimuth | | `List[float]` | `ro` | `N/A` | Compute a list of the azimuths per active planes. |
| planes_inverter_paco | | `Any` | `ro` | `N/A` | Compute a list of the maximum power rating of the inverter per active planes. |
| planes_peakpower | | `List[float]` | `ro` | `N/A` | Compute a list of the peak power per active planes. |
| planes_tilt | | `List[float]` | `ro` | `N/A` | Compute a list of the tilts per active planes. |
| planes_userhorizon | | `Any` | `ro` | `N/A` | Compute a list of the user horizon per active planes. |
| provider | `EOS_PVFORECAST__PROVIDER` | `Optional[str]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecast provider id of provider to be used. |
| provider_settings | `EOS_PVFORECAST__PROVIDER_SETTINGS` | `PVForecastCommonProviderSettings` | `rw` | `required` | Provider settings |
| providers | | `list[str]` | `ro` | `N/A` | Available PVForecast provider ids. |
:::
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**Example Input**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider": "PVForecastAkkudoktor",
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastImport": null,
"PVForecastVrm": null,
"PVForecastPVNode": null,
"PVForecastForecastSolar": null,
"PVForecastSolcast": null,
"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal": null
},
"planes": [
{
"surface_tilt": 10.0,
"surface_azimuth": 180.0,
"userhorizon": [
10.0,
20.0,
30.0
],
"peakpower": 5.0,
"pvtechchoice": "crystSi",
"mountingplace": "free",
"loss": 14.0,
"trackingtype": 0,
"optimal_surface_tilt": false,
"optimalangles": false,
"albedo": null,
"module_model": null,
"inverter_model": null,
"inverter_paco": 6000,
"modules_per_string": 20,
"strings_per_inverter": 2
},
{
"surface_tilt": 20.0,
"surface_azimuth": 90.0,
"userhorizon": [
5.0,
15.0,
25.0
],
"peakpower": 3.5,
"pvtechchoice": "crystSi",
"mountingplace": "free",
"loss": 14.0,
"trackingtype": 1,
"optimal_surface_tilt": false,
"optimalangles": false,
"albedo": null,
"module_model": null,
"inverter_model": null,
"inverter_paco": 4000,
"modules_per_string": 20,
"strings_per_inverter": 2
}
],
"max_planes": 1
}
}
```
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**Example Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider": "PVForecastAkkudoktor",
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastImport": null,
"PVForecastVrm": null,
"PVForecastPVNode": null,
"PVForecastForecastSolar": null,
"PVForecastSolcast": null,
"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal": null
},
"planes": [
{
"surface_tilt": 10.0,
"surface_azimuth": 180.0,
"userhorizon": [
10.0,
20.0,
30.0
],
"peakpower": 5.0,
"pvtechchoice": "crystSi",
"mountingplace": "free",
"loss": 14.0,
"trackingtype": 0,
"optimal_surface_tilt": false,
"optimalangles": false,
"albedo": null,
"module_model": null,
"inverter_model": null,
"inverter_paco": 6000,
"modules_per_string": 20,
"strings_per_inverter": 2
},
{
"surface_tilt": 20.0,
"surface_azimuth": 90.0,
"userhorizon": [
5.0,
15.0,
25.0
],
"peakpower": 3.5,
"pvtechchoice": "crystSi",
"mountingplace": "free",
"loss": 14.0,
"trackingtype": 1,
"optimal_surface_tilt": false,
"optimalangles": false,
"albedo": null,
"module_model": null,
"inverter_model": null,
"inverter_paco": 4000,
"modules_per_string": 20,
"strings_per_inverter": 2
}
],
"max_planes": 1,
"providers": [
"PVForecastAkkudoktor",
"PVForecastVrm",
"PVForecastPVNode",
"PVForecastForecastSolar",
"PVForecastSolcast",
"PVForecastImport",
"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal"
],
"planes_peakpower": [
5.0,
3.5
],
"planes_azimuth": [
180.0,
90.0
],
"planes_tilt": [
10.0,
20.0
],
"planes_userhorizon": [
[
10.0,
20.0,
30.0
],
[
5.0,
15.0,
25.0
]
],
"planes_inverter_paco": [
6000.0,
4000.0
]
}
}
```
<!-- pyml enable line-length -->
### Common settings for the local (pvlib) PV forecast provider
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:::{table} pvforecast::provider_settings::PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal
:widths: 10 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| albedo | `float` | `rw` | `0.25` | Ground albedo used for planes that do not set their own. |
| apply_iam | `bool` | `rw` | `True` | Apply the ASHRAE incidence-angle modifier to the beam component. |
| calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees | `int` | `rw` | `15` | Width of the solar-azimuth bins for the correction. 0 fits a single global factor only. |
| calibration_days | `int` | `rw` | `30` | Length of the measurement window used to fit the correction. |
| calibration_enabled | `bool` | `rw` | `False` | Correct systematic model error against measured PV production. Requires `measurement.pv_production_emr_keys` to be configured and fed. Fits a global scale factor plus per-solar-azimuth factors, which is what catches near-field shading the horizon profile misses. |
| calibration_max_factor | `float` | `rw` | `1.5` | Upper clamp on any fitted correction factor. |
| calibration_min_factor | `float` | `rw` | `0.5` | Lower clamp on any fitted correction factor. |
| calibration_prior_kwh | `float` | `rw` | `5.0` | Shrinkage strength: a bin needs this much modelled energy before its own factor outweighs the global one. Higher is more conservative. |
| forecast_days | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `None` | Forecast horizon in days (1-16). Leave empty to derive it from `prediction.hours`, which is what keeps the optimizer's tail horizon fed. |
| inverter_efficiency | `float` | `rw` | `0.96` | Nominal inverter efficiency (PVWatts eta_inv_nom). |
| past_days | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `None` | Days of past data to request (0-92). Leave empty to derive it from `prediction.historic_hours`. |
| resolution_minutes | `int` | `rw` | `15` | Forecast resolution in minutes. 15 requests Open-Meteo's `minutely_15` block (natively resolved over Central Europe and North America, interpolated from hourly elsewhere); 60 requests the `hourly` block. |
| shift_to_interval_start | `bool` | `rw` | `True` | Open-Meteo stamps an interval mean with the interval END. EOS labels an interval by its START, so records are shifted back by one interval. Disable only to compare like-for-like against a provider that does not. |
| temperature_coefficient | `float` | `rw` | `-0.36` | Module power temperature coefficient in %/degC (negative). Matches the `cellCoEff` the akkudoktor.net forecast uses. |
| transposition_model | `str` | `rw` | `perez` | pvlib sky-diffuse transposition model: isotropic, klucher, haydavies, reindl, king or perez. |
| weather_models | `list[str]` | `rw` | `['best_match']` | Open-Meteo weather models to request. Listing more than one turns the input into a poor-man's ensemble: the members are averaged per variable, which is the cheapest reliable way to cut irradiance forecast error. Costs no extra API calls. |
:::
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**Example Input/Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal": {
"resolution_minutes": 15,
"forecast_days": null,
"past_days": null,
"weather_models": [
"best_match"
],
"transposition_model": "perez",
"albedo": 0.25,
"inverter_efficiency": 0.96,
"temperature_coefficient": -0.36,
"apply_iam": true,
"shift_to_interval_start": true,
"calibration_enabled": true,
"calibration_days": 30,
"calibration_azimuth_bin_degrees": 15,
"calibration_prior_kwh": 5.0,
"calibration_min_factor": 0.5,
"calibration_max_factor": 1.5
}
}
}
}
```
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### Common settings for the Solcast PV forecast provider
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:::{table} pvforecast::provider_settings::PVForecastSolcast
:widths: 10 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| api_key | `str` | `rw` | `` | Solcast API key (Bearer auth). Required. |
| site_id | `str` | `rw` | `` | Solcast rooftop site (resource) id. Required. |
:::
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**Example Input/Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastSolcast": {
"api_key": "your-solcast-key",
"site_id": "abcd-1234-efgh-5678"
}
}
}
}
```
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### Common settings for the Forecast.Solar PV forecast provider
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:::{table} pvforecast::provider_settings::PVForecastForecastSolar
:widths: 10 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| api_key | `Optional[str]` | `rw` | `None` | Forecast.Solar API key. Optional — the public endpoint works without a key (lower rate limit). |
:::
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**Example Input/Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastForecastSolar": {
"api_key": null
}
}
}
}
```
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### Common settings for the pvnode.com PV forecast provider
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:::{table} pvforecast::provider_settings::PVForecastPVNode
:widths: 10 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| api_key | `str` | `rw` | `` | pvnode.com API key (Bearer auth). Required. |
| forecast_days | `int` | `rw` | `2` | Forecast horizon in days (1-7, capped by the pvnode plan). |
| site_id | `Optional[str]` | `rw` | `None` | pvnode.com site id of the saved plant ('Anlagen-ID'). When set, the saved (possibly calibrated) site is used. Leave empty to send the configured pvforecast.planes inline instead. |
:::
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**Example Input/Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastPVNode": {
"api_key": "pvn_live_xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx",
"site_id": "abcd-1234",
"forecast_days": 2
}
}
}
}
```
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### Common settings for PV forecast VRM API
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:::{table} pvforecast::provider_settings::PVForecastVrm
:widths: 10 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| pvforecast_vrm_idsite | `int` | `rw` | `12345` | VRM-Installation-ID |
| pvforecast_vrm_token | `str` | `rw` | `your-token` | Token for Connecting VRM API |
:::
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**Example Input/Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastVrm": {
"pvforecast_vrm_token": "your-token",
"pvforecast_vrm_idsite": 12345
}
}
}
}
```
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### Common settings for pvforecast data import from file or JSON string
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:::{table} pvforecast::provider_settings::PVForecastImport
:widths: 10 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| import_file_path | `Union[str, pathlib.Path, NoneType]` | `rw` | `None` | Path to the file to import PV forecast data from. |
| import_json | `Optional[str]` | `rw` | `None` | JSON string, dictionary of PV forecast value lists. |
:::
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**Example Input/Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastImport": {
"import_file_path": null,
"import_json": "{\"pvforecast_ac_power\": [0, 8.05, 352.91]}"
}
}
}
}
```
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### PV Forecast Provider Configuration
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:::{table} pvforecast::provider_settings
:widths: 10 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| PVForecastForecastSolar | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastforecastsolar.PVForecastForecastSolarCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastForecastSolar settings |
| PVForecastImport | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastimport.PVForecastImportCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastImport settings |
| PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastlocal.PVForecastAkkudoktorLocalCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal settings |
| PVForecastPVNode | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastpvnode.PVForecastPVNodeCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastPVNode settings |
| PVForecastSolcast | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastsolcast.PVForecastSolcastCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastSolcast settings |
| PVForecastVrm | `Optional[akkudoktoreos.prediction.pvforecastvrm.PVForecastVrmCommonSettings]` | `rw` | `None` | PVForecastVrm settings |
:::
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**Example Input/Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"provider_settings": {
"PVForecastImport": null,
"PVForecastVrm": null,
"PVForecastPVNode": null,
"PVForecastForecastSolar": null,
"PVForecastSolcast": null,
"PVForecastAkkudoktorLocal": null
}
}
}
```
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### PV Forecast Plane Configuration
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:::{table} pvforecast::planes::list
:widths: 10 10 5 5 30
:align: left
| Name | Type | Read-Only | Default | Description |
| ---- | ---- | --------- | ------- | ----------- |
| albedo | `Optional[float]` | `rw` | `None` | Proportion of the light hitting the ground that it reflects back. |
| inverter_model | `Optional[str]` | `rw` | `None` | Model of the inverter of this plane. |
| inverter_paco | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `None` | AC power rating of the inverter [W]. |
| loss | `Optional[float]` | `rw` | `14.0` | Sum of PV system losses in percent |
| module_model | `Optional[str]` | `rw` | `None` | Model of the PV modules of this plane. |
| modules_per_string | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `None` | Number of the PV modules of the strings of this plane. |
| mountingplace | `Optional[str]` | `rw` | `free` | Type of mounting for PV system. Options are 'free' for free-standing and 'building' for building-integrated. |
| optimal_surface_tilt | `Optional[bool]` | `rw` | `False` | Calculate the optimum tilt angle. Ignored for two-axis tracking. |
| optimalangles | `Optional[bool]` | `rw` | `False` | Calculate the optimum tilt and azimuth angles. Ignored for two-axis tracking. |
| peakpower | `Optional[float]` | `rw` | `None` | Nominal power of PV system in kW. |
| pvtechchoice | `Optional[str]` | `rw` | `crystSi` | PV technology. One of 'crystSi', 'CIS', 'CdTe', 'Unknown'. |
| strings_per_inverter | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `None` | Number of the strings of the inverter of this plane. |
| surface_azimuth | `Optional[float]` | `rw` | `180.0` | Orientation (azimuth angle) of the (fixed) plane. Clockwise from north (north=0, east=90, south=180, west=270). |
| surface_tilt | `Optional[float]` | `rw` | `30.0` | Tilt angle from horizontal plane. Ignored for two-axis tracking. |
| trackingtype | `Optional[int]` | `rw` | `None` | Type of suntracking. 0=fixed, 1=single horizontal axis aligned north-south, 2=two-axis tracking, 3=vertical axis tracking, 4=single horizontal axis aligned east-west, 5=single inclined axis aligned north-south. |
| userhorizon | `Optional[List[float]]` | `rw` | `None` | Elevation of horizon in degrees, at equally spaced azimuth clockwise from north. |
:::
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**Example Input/Output**
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```json
{
"pvforecast": {
"planes": [
{
"surface_tilt": 10.0,
"surface_azimuth": 180.0,
"userhorizon": [
10.0,
20.0,
30.0
],
"peakpower": 5.0,
"pvtechchoice": "crystSi",
"mountingplace": "free",
"loss": 14.0,
"trackingtype": 0,
"optimal_surface_tilt": false,
"optimalangles": false,
"albedo": null,
"module_model": null,
"inverter_model": null,
"inverter_paco": 6000,
"modules_per_string": 20,
"strings_per_inverter": 2
}
]
}
}
```
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